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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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